Opinion | Does Scotland Need Independence?

Scots, then, need to resolve for themselves. But it surely doesn’t comply with that they need to secede from Britain in a single day.

The citizens is popping out of two referendums in fast succession, in 2014 and 2016, and 4 years of Brexit negotiations. Assist for independence was constantly above 50 % throughout a lot of the pandemic, largely due to the distinction between Ms. Sturgeon’s in a position dealing with and the bungled response by the British authorities. However the success of the British vaccination program, coupled with a bitter political row between Ms. Sturgeon and her predecessor as chief of the S.N.P., Alex Salmond, has eradicated that lead.

A ballot this month requested the Scottish citizens if and once they thought one other independence referendum must be held. Excluding those that answered “don’t know,” 33 % mentioned inside two years, 30 % mentioned by no means, and the remaining answered both 5 or 10 years’ time. The bulk may, at the very least for the second, want a break from the negotiating and campaigning that has dominated Scottish and British politics for years. Ms. Sturgeon, a formidable politician, realizes that a lot of the S.N.P.’s reputation displays its picture as a reliable supervisor of Scotland’s devolved establishments, and within the latter weeks of campaigning, she tempered her independence messaging.

However in the end the reply as to whether Scotland must be an unbiased nation might be going to be sure. Demographic traits, the S.N.P.’s electoral dominance of the Scottish Parliament and the depth of Scotland’s antipathy towards the British Conservative Occasion all place large, long-term strains on the union’s constitutional structure.

By itself, this election end result can not ship a mandate for separating Scotland from Britain. But, assuming a brand new pro-independence majority takes form on the Scottish Parliament subsequent week, 2021 will go down as one other vital milestone within the post-Brexit disintegration of the British state. And if Mr. Johnson pursues his technique of denial, that shall be seen by many right here as an admission of defeat.

The quickest and best approach of driving undecided Scots away from the union is to inform them, in no unsure phrases, that they’re by no means allowed to depart. Ms. Sturgeon understands this. Mr. Johnson, whose major concern shouldn’t be changing into the final prime minister of the UK, needs to attend and see.

Jamie Maxwell (@jamiedmaxwell) is a Scottish journalist who writes about Scotland, Britain and the independence motion.

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